Top Consumer Spending Trends and Retail Forecasts for Holiday Gift Guide 2025
U.S. retail holiday sales are projected to rise 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year in November and December 2025, reaching roughly $985 billion to $1.01 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation's latest forecast National Retail Federation. E-commerce is expected to account for 22.5% to 23.5% of total holiday sales, up from 21.3% in 2024, driven by mobile checkout and buy-online-pickup-in-store options at major retailers Forbes.
Average planned holiday spending per consumer is $970 in 2025, a 4.1% increase from $932 in 2024, as reported by the Deloitte Global Holiday Survey Deloitte. Electronics and toys remain the top two categories, with 62% of shoppers intending to buy tech gifts and 54% planning to purchase toys and games Forbes.
Best Tech Gifts and Market Leaders for Holiday Gift Guide 2025
The best-selling tech gift category in 2025 is wireless earbuds and headphones, with Apple AirPods Pro 2 and Sony WH-1000XM6 leading unit sales and price points between $199 and $399 Forbes. AI-enabled smart home devices, including the Amazon Echo Show 15 and Google Nest Hub 2nd Gen, rank second, with average selling prices of $149 and $99 respectively Forbes.
AI Laptops and Wearables
AI-capable laptops from Dell, Lenovo, and HP with Intel Core Ultra 7 and AMD Ryzen AI 9 processors are the fastest-growing subcategory, projected to capture 18% of all laptop holiday sales in 2025 Forbes. Wearables such as the Apple Watch Series 10 and Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 remain top sellers, with combined global shipment forecasts of 58 million units for the holiday quarter Forbes.
Luxury and Experience Gifts with Market Data for Holiday Gift Guide 2025
Luxury gift spending is expected to grow 5.8% in 2025, with handbags, watches, and fine jewelry as the leading categories, according to Bain & Company's 2025 Global Luxury Market Study Bain & Company. Tesla and SpaceX branded merchandise, including model kits and apparel, rank among the top trending gift searches, with Tesla's official online store reporting a 27% year-over-year increase in holiday-season traffic Tesla.
Experience-based gifts such as travel packages and event tickets are projected to account for 14% of total holiday spending, up from 11% in 2024, per Visa's 2025 Holiday Spending Survey Visa. The SEC's latest retail filings show that major e-commerce platforms have expanded same-day delivery coverage to 85% of U.S. households, making time-sensitive luxury gifts