Global and U.S. Flu Death Estimates for 2025
Early 2025 estimates from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that seasonal influenza caused between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally in the 2024-2025 season, with the United States accounting for roughly 20,000 to 50,000 flu-related deaths. The CDC's Influenza Division reports that the 2024-2025 season peaked in late 2024 and remained elevated through early 2025, with hospitalization rates highest among adults aged 65 and older and children under five. The WHO's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System tracks severe outcomes across more than 100 countries, noting that the 2025 toll remains within the range of moderate-to-high severity seasons seen in recent years. These figures are based on statistical modeling that combines lab-confirmed cases, hospital records, and excess mortality data from national health agencies and partners such as the Global Burden of Disease study, which is accessible via WHO Influenza Programme.
In the United States, the CDC's weekly FluView surveillance report shows that the 2024-2025 season saw a mix of influenza A and B strains, with Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) variants driving most severe cases. The CDC estimates that the 2024-2025 vaccine effectiveness reduced the risk of severe outcomes by roughly 40 to 60 percent, depending on age group and match to circulating strains. Public health agencies continue to update cumulative hospitalization and death estimates as more data becomes available, and the CDC publishes final season burden estimates months after the season ends. For the latest U.S. surveillance and modeling methodology, see the CDC Influenza Burden Page.
Who Is Most at Risk and Why 2025 Deaths Concentrated in Certain Groups
Data from the CDC and peer-reviewed studies show that the majority of flu-related deaths in 2025 occurred among adults 65 and older, very young children, pregnant individuals, and people with chronic conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity. In the U.S., adults 65 and older accounted for the largest share of hospitalizations and deaths, consistent with historical patterns where immune decline and comorbidities increase the risk of severe outcomes. The CDC's Emerging Infections Program tracks age-specific hospitalization rates and finds that the 2024-2025 season saw particularly high rates in long-term care facilities, where outbreaks can spread quickly among vulnerable residents. These patterns are reinforced by global surveillance from the WHO, which highlights that low- and middle-income countries often face higher per-capita mortality due to limited access to vaccines, antivirals, and intensive care.
Health disparities also shaped the 2025 flu mortality landscape, with racial and ethnic minority groups in the U.S. experiencing higher hospitalization and death rates relative to their share of the population. Factors include lower vaccination coverage, reduced access to timely medical care, and higher prevalence of underlying health conditions, according to CDC health equity analyses. The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices continues to recommend annual flu vaccination for everyone aged six months and older, emphasizing high-dose or adjuvanted vaccines for older adults. For more on how risk groups are identified and tracked, see the CDC Flu Surveillance and Monitoring Overview.